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Datang International Power-A:Visible downtrend for thermal power;H116net profit down 17%YoY

发布时间:2016-08-30    研究机构:瑞银证券

H116 net profit down 17% YoY, with Q216 net profit down 20% YoY

Datang announced H116 results: net profit declined 17% to Rmb1.69bn in H116dragged by slower thermal power segment, or 44% of our full-year forecast (42% in2015), in line with our expectations. Its Q216 net profit declined 20% YoY, wider thanthe YoY decline of 12% in Q116.

Power generation and on-grid tariff both declined

According to the power generation data announced earlier by Datang, its total powergeneration declined 6% YoY to 82,000GWh (thermal power generation declined 11%YoY, hydro/wind/solar power generation increased 40%13%/19% YoY, respectively) inH116. We believe thermal power generation declines could be attributable to amplewater inflow and new energy capacity installation in H116, which squeezed in theutilization hours of thermal power. Datang's average on-grid tariff was Rmb0.377/kWh(-8% YoY), mainly affected by lower thermal power on-grid tariff.

Coal-chemical spinoff may improve profitability, downside for thermal power

Datang's coal-chemical segment logged bigger losses in H116 (Rmb2.24bn, fromRmb440m loss in H115). According to its announcement made on 30 June, it plannedto sell the loss-making coal-chemical division to Zhongxin Energy Chemical Technology,a wholly-owned subsidiary of Datang Group (Datang's parent). We estimate the spinoffwould improve Datang's 2016/17 recurring net profit by 22%/44%, and its 2016net liabilities/equity would fall to 294% from our previously estimated 319%. Webelieve Datang will still face significant risks of utilization rate declines in H216, giventhat thermal power accounts for 74% of its total installed capacity. In addition, weexpect recent coal price hikes (thermal coal price has risen 35% year to date) will alsoput its results under pressure.

Valuation: Maintain Sell rating and PT of Rmb3.6

Datang is trading at 1.1x our 2017 PB estimate, in line with the average PB of thermalpower IPPs. However, we estimate its 2017 ROE is 7.9%, lower than the average of10.8%. Given Datang's large exposure to thermal power and the downside risks, webelieve its valuation is overestimated. We maintain our Sell rating and DCF-based pricetarget of Rmb3.6 (WACC=5.5%).

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